Confidence in market recovery is down, purchase index shows

The assessment of the industry situation appears to be increasingly negative. The GBPI survey was conducted for the second time, following the launch of the index at Eurobike 2025. In June, the index still stood at 101.6, but by early November, it had slid to 98.8. A reading above 100 signifies sectoral expansion, while below 100 indicates contraction, offering a clear snapshot of business trends.

Business mood has turned since June

The results show that business mood has changed significantly in the past months. The current situation in the industry was assessed as bad or very bad by 66% of the participants in the survey, worsening from 49% last June. While 50% of the respondents said the market situation this quarter would stay the same compared with last year, no less than 29% expect the situation will be less positive.

The sharpest indication of the market contraction is the new incoming order level. In June, 46% of the respondents reported an increase in the level of new orders, but this has now dropped to 31%. At the same time, 21% report an increase in inventory levels (up from 16% in June). These indicators confirm the business mood at Taichung Bike Week, only two months ago. Product managers saw no purpose in coming over to Taiwan, or their trip was cancelled for budget reasons. Exhibitors told Bike Europe that lining up meetings before the event had been difficult. Many visitors weren’t buying into hopes of a 2026 market rebound either.

Purchasing levels vary in the supply chain

An analysis of purchasing patterns among bicycle assemblers, parts and components manufacturers, and distributors reveals interesting insights. Both the assemblers and parts and components manufacturers have decreased their order levels significantly. OEMs are ordering less overall, with 45% indicating a decline in orders compared to 28% in June.

The ordering level of raw materials and semi-finished products at component manufacturers also decreased. No fewer than 34% reported lower order levels, a 15 percentage point decrease compared to June. At that time, 21% of respondents indicated they had ordered less in the previous quarter compared to the same period last year.

This shift in ordering levels is a clear sign of further market contraction. While the study last June still revealed that the inventory crisis came closer to an end, the decline in order levels reported this November shows the sales forecasts for 2026 are lower than previously expected.

Contrary to this, distributors still perceive the short-term market development as positive, as 29% increased their order level, versus 21% last June. This could be due to their different position in the supply chain.