German market to stabilise in 2024 after last year's decline
The decline in bicycle and e-bike sales Germany experienced in 2023 was a one-off writes the Cologne based Institute for Retail Research IFH in their annual market study. According to IFH, the demand will increase moderately again in the future starting in 2024.
The outcome of the IFH study is in line with the publication of the German IBD organisation, VSF, earlier this year. “Around 70% of our members expect neutral to positive sales development in 2024, while 74% of the IBDs expect their stock levels to normalise before the end of the season,” wrote VSF last March.
Slow market recovery
The forecast for the bicycle market remains cautiously optimistic for IFH. It is generally known in the market that the jump in sales during the Corona years would not continue. The only big question is whether the sales decline in 2023 was only a market correction or a new, downward trend. For 2024, the experts at IFH Cologne and BBE retail consultancy are currently expecting a slight increase in sales: “In the coming years up to 2028, the market will slowly recover. An average annual growth of up to around 4% is possible.”
“The high inventory levels of bicycle dealers mean that large price reductions are sometimes necessary to sell the inventory. At the moment, this is being felt primarily by manufacturers, who are suffering a drop in orders. In the coming years, however, the market will level off again and record constant growth,” says Christoph Lamsfuß, Senior Consultant at IFH Cologne.
“After a satisfactory start in 2024 and a reduction in inventories, the industry will soon return to normal. E-bikes and company bike leasing offerings, as well as increasing workshop orders continue to have a positive effect,” says Florian Schöps, Manager BBE retail consultancy, assessing the data.
