Confronting bicycle market headwinds in 2025

The international bicycle industry, once heralded as a long-term growth story thanks to the e-bike boom, now finds itself grappling with uncertainty. Tariffs, shifting trade flows, regulatory ambiguity and fragile consumer demand are reshaping strategies across the value chain. Four leading manufacturers — Bosch eBike Systems, Schwalbe, Bafang and Velo —paint a picture of an industry both challenged and transformed, where resilience increasingly depends on innovation and adaptability.

From tyres to drive systems to saddles, all players agree that tariffs and shifting trade agreements have created an unstable business environment. Bosch and Velo highlight that while frame producers have so far borne the brunt of United States duties, changes could soon extend to components. Schwalbe has already felt the impact, forced to fill its North American warehouses before the latest 10% global tariff came into effect. For Velo, the recent resolution of the Vietnam-US trade dispute offers some relief, but both Ann Chen of Velo and Nico Simons of Schwalbe emphasise that long-term planning remains difficult when agreements can shift overnight.

Regulatory uncertainty around e-bikes

At the same time, the industry faces the challenge of defining what an e-bike really is. Bosch warns that without a cap on peak motor power, regulators may increasingly classify high-performance e-bikes as motorcycles, stripping them of infrastructure access and creating barriers for consumers. Such a shift could not only constrain growth but also undermine years of advocacy for cycling as active mobility. Velo echoes the concern, pointing to the growing complexity of e-bike segments — road, commuter and cargo — each with distinct regulatory needs. For all insiders, maintaining clear and harmonised regulatory definitions is essential to preserving market momentum.

Supply chains recalibrated

The turbulence of recent years has forced companies to rethink production footprints. Schwalbe has concentrated operations in Vietnam, retaining dormant Indonesian capacity for flexibility. Bafang has reduced SKU complexity to streamline output and speed delivery, while Bosch closely monitors shifting trade legislation to safeguard component flows. Velo stresses the importance of flexible production planning to help customers align schedules more efficiently.

If the pandemic years revealed the fragility of supply and demand, today’s market underscores the volatility of trade and regulation. Despite these headwinds, innovation is repeatedly identified as the industry’s lifeline. Whether through connected digital systems, sustainable tyre technology, modular drive platforms or rider-focused design, bicycle industry manufacturers are preparing to use this uncertainty as a catalyst for transformation.