Dutch market confronting challenges

In total 855,000 bicycles and e-bikes combined were sold in the Netherlands in 2022, a decrease of 7% compared with 2021. This trend can easily be explained by all the delays in deliveries in the first half of 2022. However, the long-term trend also shows that the market has lost 22% of its volume in the past 2 years.

The transformation from mechanical to electric bicycles seems unstoppable in the Netherlands. Last year, the market volume of regular bicycles dropped by 17% to 369,000 units. Contrary to the decline in volume of the overall market, we see an ongoing increase of market value. In 2022 the market generated a turnover of €1.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2%. Some 80% of this value can be attributed to e-bikes.

From short supply to overflow

For 10 years in a row, the e-bike market share in the Netherlands has increased. In 2022, the e-bike sales share reached 57% in units. In 2021, sales in this category fell by 12.5% to 478,000 units, due to delivery problems. Last year deliveries picked up again and 486,000 units were sold, an increase of 2% compared with 2021.

The average retail price per unit increased by 8.9% to € 1,772 compared to 2021. The consumer paid 4% more, or €2,489 on average for an e-bike. According to the industry association RAI, the price increases can be explained by the limited availability and rising prices of parts, but also the larger share of e-bikes in sales.

Rocky start to 2023

The turnover, but also the sales result, in the first quarter of the Dutch bicycle market has fallen significantly compared to 2022. Benchmark figures released by H&L Accountants & Tax Advisers show a turnover decrease of no less than 10.3% in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the same period in 2022. Looking at the months in that first quarter, it is striking that January recorded a plus of 2.7%, but that the months of February and especially March ended in the minus compared to 2022: -8.5% and -17.4% respectively.

Looking for a possible reason for the large difference between March 2023 and March 2022, weather conditions are an obvious factor. March 2022 was the sunniest March since the Dutch weather institute KNMI started recording data. In opposition, March 2023 was a very wet and gloomy affair.

‘Don’t draw too many conclusions yet’

“Based on the first quarter alone, it is premature to be very concerned about the rest of 2023,” write Daan Luijkx or Richard Guit, both partners at H&L Accountants. “Last year, in January and February in particular, turnover rose very sharply (by more than 60%) compared to 2021. That there is now a decrease compared to the first quarter of 2022 is therefore not very surprising.”

“In addition, it is good to note that the turnover for the first quarter only represents about 20% of the annual turnover. It is good to place the decline that we are seeing in that perspective and not yet draw any important conclusions based on the results for the first quarter of 2023.”